Property Market Trends: An ISTAT View

Contraction of 4.1% compared to the previous quarter and a year-on-year decline of 16.0%.

Regional Variations and Real Estate Sectors

The cyclical variations show a decline in housing sales in all regions, with the North-West declining by 5.9%, the North-East by 5.1%, the South by 4.1%, and the Centre by 2.4%. An exception is the Islands, which remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1%. At the economic level, there was a decrease at the national level, with the North-West leading with a decrease of 5.4%, followed by the Islands (-3.2%), the Centre (-3.0%), the South (-0.6%), and the North-East (-0.4%).

The vast majority of agreements (94.0%) concern transfers of property for residential use (221,514), while 5.7% are for economic use (13,373) and 0.4% for special use and timeshare (838).

Compared to Q2 2022, real estate transactions show a contraction of 16.7% in the residential sector and 1.5% in the economic sector.

Territorial Analysis and Outlook

At a territorial level, the housing sector shows negative year-on-year percentage changes across the country: North-West -21.6%, Centre -17.8%, South -14.8%, North-East -13.8%, and Islands -5.5%. The economic sector showed a decrease in the North-West (-6.5%), the Centre (-6.4%), and the Islands (-4.2%), while increases were recorded in the North-East (+6.2%) and the South (+4.9%). Purchases and sales decreased in both large and small towns in the housing sector (-20.9% and -13.5% respectively), while in the economic sector they decreased in large towns (-6.6%) and increased in small towns (+2.1%).

Notary agreements for mortgages, loans and real estate mortgages, amounting to 78,512, reflect a decrease of 7.3% compared to the previous quarter and 35.3% year-on-year. This decline involves all regions, with year-on-year decreases of 9.5% in the South, 8.4% in the North-West, 7.6% in the North-East, 6.3% in the Islands, and 3.9% in the Centre. The annual decreases are more pronounced, with the North-West leading with a 40.6% decrease, followed by the Centre (-36.2%), the South (-32.5%), the North-East (-30.4%), the Islands (-27.6%), metropolitan cities (-39.5%), and small towns (-31.7%).

Overview in H1 2023: Trends and Challenges

Analysing the first half of 2023, the real estate market recorded 446,416 notarial purchase and sale agreements, showing a decrease of 13.7% compared to the same period in 2022. This contraction mainly affected the housing sector (-14.4%), with negative changes more pronounced in the North-West (-19.3%) and Centre (-17.0%), and less pronounced in the North-East (-11.1%), South (-10.2%), and Islands (-5.2%). The economic sector remained stable at national level, but showed regional differences: growth in the South (+5.2%) and the North-East (+4.6%), contraction in the Centre (-4.2%), the North-West (-3.1%), and the Islands (-1.8%).

Notary agreements for mortgages, loans and real estate mortgages, amounting to 152,094 in the first half of 2023, reflect a sharp decrease of 33.3%. This trend is more marked in the North-West (-38.7%) and the Centre (-35.1%), while it is less pronounced in the South (-29.2%), the North-East (-28.1%), and the Islands (-26.6%). Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT).




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